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从“博收益”走向“压舱石”？ 黄金理财产品净值回暖却遇发行“冰点”_我的网站

一 |     The electric vehicle ecosystem in India is still at a very nascent stage, but the number of electric vehicles on Indian roads is on the rise every day.,Despite the growth, there are a lot of challenges that need to be addressed with regard to the EV infrastructure.,Road safety is one of the major concerns, as the country ranks first in terms of number of road accident deaths in the world. Last year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) launched the Road Safety 2.0 program in India with an aim to introduce technology which would promote the 4Es of road safety i.e. Education, Engineering, Enforcement and Emergency care.,In an interview with Sputnik, Akhilesh Srivastava, Project Head of the World Economic Forum’s Road Safety 2.0 program and Member of the NHEV Knowledge group, talked about measures to be taken to ensure road safety in India and discussed the challenges presented by the battery swapping policy in India.,Sputnik: According to government data, India ranks first in the number of road accident deaths in the world. As you lead the World Economic Forum’s initiative Road Safety 2.0 in India, what measures are required to reduce such fatalities?,Akhilesh Srivastava: With 11 percent of global road fatalities, India ranks worst in terms of the sheer number of road accident deaths in the world. The impact of road accidents on Indian GDP is nearly INR 2.5 trillion ($31.7 billion) i.e., over 1.85 percent of the GDP.,It is clear that old or conventional methods of road safety are not working and there is an urgent need for a new solution. The WEF-led Road Safety 2.0 is one such next-gen solution, where the power of technology is leveraged to save lives on roads.,A few of the measures have been enumerated in it are: the use of technology is the best way to quickly and effectively reduce accidents; сontinuous tracking driving behavior using IoT to generate Safe Driving Scores. The SDS can be used as a monitoring mechanism for incentivizing good driving behavior and reskilling the bad drivers; use of Safety measures like seat belt and helmet with sensors attached; use of AI with the integration of Traffic Lights; implementation of ITS-based penalty set up to penalize people; scaling awareness about the regulations among the people;,Sputnik: WEF’s Road Safety 2.0 talks about an approach to create a human-centric road ecosystem. Could you elaborate what sort of road ecosystem it aims to create?,Akhilesh Srivastava: Human-centric design is a method of product creation that places the requirements, desires, and abilities of users at the forefront of the process. Rather than expecting users to change and conform their behaviors to the product, it involves making design decisions based on how people can, need, and want to do tasks.,Moving on from existing to a human-centric road ecosystem will help the highway builders, manufacturing industry and the enforcement agencies tackle the needs of the people and then accordingly devise the road safety setup and create a human-centric road ecosystem.,For Example, the presence of air bags in the car is for the drivers and passengers' safety. Why only the front seat should have air bags, people in the back seats are equally vulnerable. As per the human-centric approach, the seat belt should be for all humans in the vehicle. All seats in private vehicles like cars and for all passengers in long-distance public transport buses.,Pedestrians, cyclists and other vulnerable road users should be given due space and weightage while framing the policies. In India, pedestrians, cyclists and two-wheelers constitute the majority but the roads and road rules, are made keeping in mind the bigger vehicles.,Sputnik: FASTags in India were adopted to make travel seamless on National Highways and Expressways. However, despite the complete roll-out we see long queues of vehicles at toll plazas and technical glitches being reported. How can an effective and glitch-free usage of FASTags be adopted?,Akhilesh Srivastava: FASTag has made travel hassle-free on highways and expressways in India. There are no queues. FASTag has made tolling very efficient and transparent. Last year’s toll collection was the highest ever at nearly INR 400 billion (Over $5 million),Apart from this, the FASTag has saved fuel wastage of worth over INR 200 billion ($2.5 million) which happened due to idling of vehicles at toll plazas. It also resulted in saving at least 50 million MT of carbon emission.,Sputnik: Regarding the electric vehicle segment, it is a well-known fact that in India it is at a very nascent stage. What are the major challenges that stakeholders are facing and how can they be tackled?,Akhilesh Srivastava: With 100 percent FDI available, new production centres, and a greater push to improve charging infrastructure, India's electric vehicle industry is gaining traction.,Other growth factors for the Indian EV industry include federal subsidies and policies supporting deeper discounts for Indian-made electric two-wheelers, as well as a boost for localized ACC battery storage manufacture.,Furthermore, in September 2021, the federal government authorized a production-linked incentive program for the automotive sector to stimulate the manufacture of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In 2021, India sold over 300,000 electric vehicles.,Some of the challenges that exist but are being tackled by the stakeholders are: inadequate charging infrastructure; reliance on battery imports; reliance on imported components and parts, range anxiety among consumers; current high price of EVs; lack of options for high-performance EVs; inadequate electricity supply in parts of India; lack of quality maintenance and repair options.,Sputnik: You have links with the NHEV (National Highway for Electric Vehicle) programme. What initiatives are being taken under the programme to expand EV infrastructure?,Akhilesh Srivastava: Yes, I appreciate this question which talks about Electric Vehicles and being a member of the Knowledge group of NHEV, I wish similar kind of road safety in India, however, some additional concerns are to be kept in mind are:,• The EV is directly connected to a regular household power outlet. This mode is the simplest possible charging mode and does not support any communication between the EV and the charge point, hence it is prohibited in many countries due to safety concerns.,• The onboard charger converts AC to DC. It uses a special type of charging cable equipped with an in-cable control and protection device. This can be used for private charging, but its public use is subject to restrictions in many countries.,• Batteries are the key element. And we noticed a few cases of fire recently. There should be a proper set of technical and regulatory guidelines for the batteries, about its specifications, unique Id number of batteries, uniformity in the charging system, and even uniformity in batteries so that battery swapping can be done easily.,Tracking of batteries can give alerts about the health of batteries so that unsafe batteries can be removed timely.,Sputnik: Ever since the Finance Minister announced the battery swapping policy, it has been a much talked about topic across the segment. Do you think it can be realized?,Akhilesh Srivastava: I appreciate the announcement by Finance Minister about the battery swapping policy. A detailed policy for battery standardization, specifications, and safety protocols is being prepared.,We should think of the battery as a service for battery swapping. This will allow the setting up of battery stations on a mass level; a battery swapping policy will be brought in and interoperability standards will be formulated.,The private players should be encouraged to develop sustainable and innovative models for the battery as a service which will increase efficiency in the electric vehicle ecosystem. This will reduce the cost of Electric Vehicles and give impetus for electric vehicle growth in the coming years.,Sputnik: Electric vehicles are an alternative to petrol and diesel vehicles, and commonly seen as a way to reduce carbon emissions. However, the source of electricity remains non-renewable, so what roadmap has the NHEV adopted to generate electricity for the electric vehicles through renewable sources?,Akhilesh Srivastava: The transport sector accounts for 18 percent of total energy consumption in India. This translates to an estimated 94 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) energy.,If India were to follow the current trends of energy consumption, it would require an estimated 200 MTOE of energy supply annually, by the year 2030 to meet the demand of this sector. As of now, this demand is being met mostly through imported crude oil, which therefore makes this sector vulnerable to volatile international crude oil prices. Moreover, the sector also contributes an estimated 142 million tons of CO2 emissions annually.,Electric mobility presents a viable alternative in addressing these challenges, when packaged with innovative pricing solutions, appropriate technology and support infrastructure and thus, has been on the radar of the Government of India.,The point of renewability of electricity is being addressed too with renewable energies like solar energy, wind energy and other forms other renewable sources of energy. The growth of India in this has been spectacular and the country is ahead of many developed countries in this regard.,Want to know more? Check out our Koo & Telegram accounts!,Koo: https://www.kooapp.com/profile/sputniknews,Sputnik India: https://t.me/sputniknewsindia。    　　文章来源：中国经营报　　中经记者 张漫游 北京报道　　金价反弹正在修复一度被市场冷落的“固收+黄金”理财产品。《中国经营报》记者从普益标准了解到一组数据，6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%。　　国际金价自8月初低点4041美元/盎司启动反弹，月内一度涨超10%重返4600美元/盎司上方。不过，与净值回暖形成反差的是，发行端持续降温。《中国经营报》记者梳理发现，6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。业内人士认为，黄金在理财组合中的角色，正在从“博取收益的工具”转向“穿越周期的压舱石”。　　配置逻辑悄然生变　　黄金理财产品的收益曲线在过去半年经历了一轮陡峭的过山车。

二 | 普益标准数据显示，2月黄金理财平均收益5.38%，彼时黄金理财最高收益达8.16%；随后黄金理财收益率可谓骤降，3—5月黄金理财平均收益分别为2.17%、2.56%、2.32%；6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%，黄金理财最高收益达最高4.60%。

三 | 　　与产品收益率回暖形成对照的是发行端的冷清。据Wind数据统计，2026年以来，共有34只黄金理财产品成立新发，但6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。记者采访了解到，目前，理财公司普遍以债券票息打底、黄金敞口控制在低仓位，在多资产框架下以灵活节奏“逢低配置”。　　东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞告诉记者，由“博收益”到“压舱石”的定位转变，过去黄金在理财组合中更多被视为交易性增强工具，金价上涨时增配博取弹性，下跌时减持控制回撤，本质上是将黄金当作高波动的另类资产来轮动。但2026年以来，随着美国财政可持续性争议从预期走向数据验证、全球央行持续购金、去美元化趋势推进，黄金的战略配置属性被重新定价。黄金在主权信用风险和通胀尾部情景下具备对冲价值，这使其在“固收+”组合中承担的角色从“收益增强器”转向“风险分散器”。　　但他同时提醒道，“压舱石”不等于“稳定器”。“黄金自身波动率并不低，它压的是信用货币体系的舱，而非组合净值波动的舱。

四 | ”瞿瑞指出，近1个月0.61%、近3个月0.75%的净值涨幅中，相当部分来自8月金价快速反弹的贡献，而非可持续的超额收益。风险定价层面，理财公司需要重新评估黄金仓位风险，即使5%至10%的黄金仓位，在金价单日波动2%至4%的环境下也可能主导组合的短期净值波动。　　金价后市多空交织　　对于金价后续走势，市场机构整体偏乐观。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表机构观点认为，下半年涨势尚未结束。随着投资者重新评估美国货币政策及美元前景，金价打破近期的整理局面，再度走高。

五 | 美国劳动力市场数据走软，也强化了市场预期美联储有望在通胀压力可控下维持利率不变。需求端因素亦为金价增添助力。黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）再度出现资金净流入，最初主要由中国买盘驱动，近期欧洲买盘也逐渐增强。

六 | 与此同时，各国央行购金热度不减。世界黄金协会数据显示，6月全球央行净购金量达到51吨。7月中国央行增持黄金储备20吨，为2023年10月以来单月最大增幅。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室同时列出了金价延续涨势的三项条件：第一，美元需继续走弱。我们的基准情景是，美联储将在9月按兵不动。不过，年内是否加息仍存在不确定性。第二，市场对美国实际利率的预期下降。

七 | 实际利率是扣除通胀预期后的利率水平。作为非生息资产，实际利率越高，意味着持有黄金的机会成本就越高。尽管实际利率与金价并非在所有时期都保持稳定的相关性，但这仍是值得关注的重要指标。第三，黄金的投资需求还需进一步增强。ETF资金流入出现改善，但此势头能否持续，还有待观察。我们的分析框架显示，每季度投资买盘需达到约500吨，才能支持金价持续站稳于5000美元/盎司或以上。　　前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，去美元化是大势所趋，国际金价未来突破5000美元/盎司只是时间问题。他认为，本轮金价上涨的驱动因素主要有两方面：一是美国公布的非农就业、零售数据不及预期，通胀有所回落，美联储降息预期再度增强，9月会议大概率按兵不动，若四季度经济数据仍疲软，12月不排除降息可能；二是美国财政部加大回购国债力度，促使此前走高的美债收益率回落，对金价形成正面支撑。

八 | 此外，全球央行购金步伐未停，为金价提供中长期底部支撑。据世界黄金协会7月30日报告，二季度全球央行及其他官方机构合计净增黄金储备289吨，同比增长62%。他建议，普通投资者在投资组合中配置10%至20%的黄金类资产，以对冲美元即其他纸币长期贬值的风险。　　对于理财公司“逢低配置”策略的可持续性，瞿瑞分析称，其核心取决于黄金定价中枢能否稳定抬升，而非择时能力本身。若财政信用弱化和央行购金构成中长期底部支撑，逢低配置就是在中枢抬升趋势中以较低成本建仓的有效策略，理财公司较长的负债端期限也提供了承受短期波动的空间。但这一策略面临两个风险：一是若美国通胀反弹迫使美联储重启加息或全球流动性阶段性收紧，金价可能显著回调，“逢低”之后还有更低；二是8月以来COMEX黄金期货价格快速拉升至4700美元/盎司附近，短期获利回吐压力加大，“逢低配置”的窗口正在收窄，高位追涨风险增大。　　（编辑：杨井鑫 审核：何莎莎 校对：翟军）责任编辑：朱赫楠。

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